Sep 17, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 17 01:03:50 UTC 2020 (20200917 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200917 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200917 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 13,038 826,628 Tallahassee, FL...Valdosta, GA...Thomasville, GA...Tifton, GA...Moultrie, GA...
MARGINAL 22,376 2,086,625 Jacksonville, FL...Albany, GA...Hinesville, GA...Statesboro, GA...St. Marys, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200917 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 13,223 851,464 Tallahassee, FL...Valdosta, GA...Thomasville, GA...Tifton, GA...Moultrie, GA...
2 % 22,181 2,065,012 Jacksonville, FL...Albany, GA...Hinesville, GA...Statesboro, GA...St. Marys, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200917 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 35,541 2,947,045 Jacksonville, FL...Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Valdosta, GA...Hinesville, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200917 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170103

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0803 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

   Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO A PORTION OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A tornado or two remain possible overnight from the central Florida
   Panhandle into a portion of south central Georgia.

   ...Northern Florida through southern Georgia...

   As of early evening, the center of tropical storm Sally was located
   over southern Alabama moving northeast at 7 miles per hour. Several
   convective rain bands with discrete cells persist from the northeast
   Gulf into northern FL and southern GA. Vertical wind profiles east
   of the center remain favorable for updraft rotation. Lightning
   trends have been down due primarily to low-level stabilization with
   onset of nocturnal cooling. A warm front resides near the GA/FL
   border. The greatest threat for a tornado or two will persist from
   the central FL Panhandle into far southern GA as discrete cells move
   north and interact with the front, and where low-level trajectories
   are from the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The very marginal
   thermodynamic environment will remain an overall limiting factor.

   ..Dial.. 09/17/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z