Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
62,250
9,330,668
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
61,669
9,222,757
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 290541
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated
damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two will be possible across
the eastern Carolinas and into southeastern Virginia today.
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper flow field -- featuring a western
ridge/eastern trough configuration -- will persist across the U.S.
today. The primary trough axis -- initially aligned roughly from
the Upper Great Lakes across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley
-- will advance steadily eastward, crossing the Appalachians late in
the period.
At the surface, a cold front already in lee of the Appalachian Crest
at the start of the period will move gradually eastward. Overnight,
the front will likely clear the middle and southern Atlantic Coasts,
though lingering inland across New England through Wednesday
morning.
...Eastern Carolinas/southeastern Virginia...
Widespread clouds/precipitation will be ongoing this morning at the
start of the forecast period, ahead of the slowly advancing cold
front. Resulting weak lapse rates and hindered potential for
daytime heating suggests meager CAPE across much of the pre-frontal
warm sector. With that said, strong -- albeit meridional and
front-parallel -- flow aloft will exist across the region, though
still yielding shear sufficient for organization within any updraft
which can become sustained.
The most likely area for sustained -- and thus potentially
organized/rotating -- updrafts to occur still appears to exist
across the eastern Carolinas and into southeastern Virginia. Here,
southerly flow advecting Gulf Stream moisture inland may support a
local maximum in CAPE (500 to 700 J/kg), suggestive of slightly
greater severe potential. Therefore, will maintain the 5% wind/2%
tornado area (MRGL categorical risk) across this region. Elsewhere
ahead of the front -- northward into New England and southward to
Florida -- risk for severe weather appears lesser, though remaining
non-zero until convection, and the associated cold front, move
gradually offshore.
..Goss/Bentley.. 09/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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