Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
90,552
15,335,659
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
116,442
18,930,023
Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 291236
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEASTERN FL TO EASTERN VA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon/evening from
northeastern Florida across the Carolinas to eastern Virginia.
...Northeastern FL to eastern VA this afternoon/evening...
Within a large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, an embedded
shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley this morning will move
northeastward to the southern Appalachians this evening and the
Mid-Atlantic overnight. At the surface, cyclogenesis is expected
today along a surface cold front immediately east of the
Appalachians, and the surface cyclone will develop
north-northeastward to northern New England by the end of the
period. East of the cyclone and cold front, boundary-layer
dewpoints in the low 70s will continue to spread northward across
the Carolinas and southeastern VA.
Despite the increase in low-level moisture, buoyancy will remain
somewhat limited in the warm sector as a result of poor midlevel
lapse rates. Still, pockets of surface heating will support MLCAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg. Concurrently, deep-layer vertical shear will
increase with the approach of the midlevel trough from the
southwest, such that effective bulk shear will reach 40-50 kt. The
modest CAPE and long, straight hodographs will favor a mix of line
segments or weak supercells along or just ahead of the surface cold
front, with the main concern being the potential for isolated
damaging gusts this afternoon/evening.
..Thompson/Jewell.. 09/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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