Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
35,998
4,724,918
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
126,564
19,543,207
Jacksonville, FL...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 291611
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN VA TO
NORTH FL...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds will be possible after about 2 PM EDT
through this evening from north Florida across the Carolinas to
eastern Virginia. A brief tornado is also possible, mainly centered
on eastern North Carolina tonight.
...Delmarva to north FL...
Within an amplified large-scale trough from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf Coast, a primary embedded impulse near the IL/IN border
will eject east to the northern Appalachians through early
Wednesday. Cyclogenesis will occur mainly tonight with the primary
surface cyclone ejecting north from the DE Valley towards VT. A
secondary lee cyclone over western NC should move towards the VA
Tidewater, with an attendant cold front to its south that will
progress east and reach the south Atlantic Coast by evening.
Upper 60s to low 70s boundary-layer dew points will remain pervasive
ahead of the cyclones/cold front, but boundary-layer heating will
likely be more pronounced from eastern VA to north FL. Given the
relatively meridional mid/upper-level flow regime and cooler
temperatures aloft lagging well west, high-level lapse rates will be
poor. This will likely hold MLCAPE to between 750-1500 J/kg north of
FL. Deep-layer winds will increase with approach of the amplified
trough, more substantially tonight, with relatively small low-level
hodograph curvature expected to persist into early evening. The
modest CAPE with an elongated hodograph due to the degree of
vertical speed shear should favor weak/transient supercell
structures within a broken line of convection along/just ahead of
the surface cold front during the late afternoon and evening. The
primary concern will be for locally strong gusts capable of
producing sporadic damaging winds. A brief tornado is also possible,
mainly centered on eastern NC tonight, with any deep convection that
can linger amid meager buoyancy as low-level hodographs enlarge.
..Grams/Gleason.. 09/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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