Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
28,826
3,635,519
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
28,836
3,628,987
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 300052
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado will be possible this
evening from eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic.
...Eastern North Carolina/Mid-Atlantic...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with southwest mid-level flow over the
eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a low is located over southeast
Virginia with a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic extending southward
into central North Carolina. A band of convection is ongoing along
the front with additional storms in the pre-frontal airmass across
eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. The airmass ahead of
the front is weakly unstable with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range according to the RAP. In spite of this, wind profiles have
some directional shear in the low-levels with substantial speed
shear in the mid-levels. This is contributing to 50 kt of 0-6 km
shear on the Wakefield, Virginia WSR-88D VWP, which should be enough
for a marginal wind damage threat associated with the stronger
portions of the convective band. The VWP at Wakefield also has 0-3
km storm relative helicity near 200 m2/s2 which may be enough for a
brief tornado as well. Any severe threat will end late this evening
as the convective band moves eastward to the coast.
..Broyles.. 09/30/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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