Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 071601
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are possible later today from New York into much
of New England.
...Northeast...
The current forecast area appears to be on track, with no changes
made. A band of showers and thunderstorms is organizing from lake
Ontario northeastward along the St Lawrence Valley. This activity
will move quickly eastward across much of NY early this afternoon,
and across much of New England through early evening. Widespread
clouds are present ahead of the convection, which will limit
low-level lapse rates and CAPE. It is likely that these fast-moving
showers and storms will produce gusty and marginally damaging winds,
but it is uncertain how prevalent the risk of 50 knot winds will be.
Given the overall marginal thermodynamic environment, will maintain
the ongoing MRGL risk area. Activity should move off the New
England coast by mid-evening, ending the threat of gusty winds.
..Hart.. 10/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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