Hartford, CT...Waterbury, CT...New Bedford, MA...Fall River, MA...New Britain, CT...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hartford, CT...Waterbury, CT...New Bedford, MA...Fall River, MA...New Britain, CT...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 071929
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
NEW YORK INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and
perhaps persisting into the early evening from parts of the Hudson
Valley into southern New England.
...Discussion...
Have upgraded to 15-percent wind probabilities for parts of
east-central NY eastward into southern New England ahead of a squall
line quickly moving east across NY. Several NY Mesonet sites in
Chenango, Montgomery, and Herkimer counties have observed gusts in
the 50-56 mph range during the past hour.
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving
into the Northeast. The flow associated with this disturbance is
quite strong (50 kt at 1.5 km ARL) as sampled by the KENX (Albany,
NY) and KBOX (Boston, MA) 88D VADs. Although the earlier rain
shield has progressed across southern New England, cloud breaks and
peak heating in wake of these showers will enable at least some
steepening of the low-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg
SBCAPE to develop. Given the strongly forced squall line with
adequate instability developing ahead/downstream of the convective
line, it seems plausible strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph)
via horizontal momentum transport, will continue or possibly
increase in coverage over the next few hours and result in widely
scattered wind damage.
..Smith.. 10/07/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020/
...Northeast...
The current forecast area appears to be on track, with no changes
made. A band of showers and thunderstorms is organizing from lake
Ontario northeastward along the St Lawrence Valley. This activity
will move quickly eastward across much of NY early this afternoon,
and across much of New England through early evening. Widespread
clouds are present ahead of the convection, which will limit
low-level lapse rates and CAPE. It is likely that these fast-moving
showers and storms will produce gusty and marginally damaging winds,
but it is uncertain how prevalent the risk of 50 knot winds will be.
Given the overall marginal thermodynamic environment, will maintain
the ongoing MRGL risk area. Activity should move off the New
England coast by mid-evening, ending the threat of gusty winds.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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