Oct 11, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 11 00:35:45 UTC 2020 (20201011 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20201011 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20201011 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 27,808 6,187,863 Atlanta, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Roswell, GA...Marietta, GA...Smyrna, GA...
MARGINAL 59,418 7,454,797 Columbus, GA...Columbia, SC...Manchester, NH...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20201011 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 11,449 5,405,606 Atlanta, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Roswell, GA...Marietta, GA...Smyrna, GA...
2 % 53,326 5,821,943 Columbus, GA...Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...Warner Robins, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20201011 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 16,206 774,346 Lewiston, ME...Bangor, ME...Auburn, ME...Augusta, ME...Laconia, NH...
5 % 70,099 12,768,275 Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Columbia, SC...Manchester, NH...Sandy Springs, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20201011 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 16,945 828,167 Lewiston, ME...Bangor, ME...Auburn, ME...Augusta, ME...Laconia, NH...
   SPC AC 110035

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

   Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE GULF STATES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some tornado threat continues this evening across parts of Alabama,
   Georgia, and northwestern South Carolina. Damaging thunderstorm
   winds will linger this evening across parts of northern New England.

   ...01z Update...

   Remnants of TC Delta are lifting northeast across the mid-South
   region where latest satellite imagery suggests this system is
   becoming increasingly extra tropical. Substantial mid-level
   drying/subsidence is spreading ahead of the main low across AL into
   western GA. The primary threat for deep/robust convection/lightning
   remains ahead of this drying. Have adjusted tornado probabilities
   downstream a bit across northern GA into northwest SC where a
   well-defined surface boundary is currently draped. This wind shift
   may provide the focus for additional supercell development and
   possibly a few weak tornadoes.

   Farther north across New England, strong mid-level forcing is
   spreading across northern New England this evening. Despite weak
   buoyancy across ME, recent radar data suggests some convective
   organization. Greatest severe threat appears to be over the next few
   hours with convection that is spreading east from central NH into
   southwest ME. Gusty winds are the main concern.

   ..Darrow.. 10/11/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z