Mobile, AL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...Panama City, FL...
MARGINAL
42,898
3,973,805
New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,709
1,900,688
Mobile, AL...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...Panama City, FL...
2 %
43,224
3,904,187
New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...Kenner, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 280532
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TC ZETA...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are expected later today through the overnight over
parts of the central Gulf Coast states in association with Zeta.
...TC Zeta...
TC Zeta will be the primary focus for concern regarding the
potential for tornado development later today. Early this morning,
Zeta was located over the central Gulf basin and moving quickly
northwest. However, it should begin curving northeast shortly then
move onshore over southeast LA by early evening. Mid 70s surface dew
points have already advanced inland across the central/eastern Gulf
Coast region which has contributed to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at times. While weak convection will likely continue
well ahead of Zeta due to modest buoyancy, low-level shear is not
particularly strong at this time, and most storms will pose little
appreciable threat in generating tornadoes. However, wind profiles
will become increasingly favorable for supercells by early evening,
along with some tornado threat. Will maintain SLGT Risk for
tornadoes east of Zeta's expected landfall into the FL Panhandle.
Have made minor adjustments to the MRGL Risk later in the period to
reflect low-topped supercell threat immediately ahead of the remnant
low center as it tracks toward northwest GA.
..Darrow/Cook.. 10/28/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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