Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 101615
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging to severe winds and a
few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of
Missouri northeastward into portions of Iowa, Illinois, and
Wisconsin.
...Mid MS Valley...
Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough and associated
mid-level speed max rotating across the central Plains into MO/IA.
This feature will result in strong surface cyclogenesis as a surface
low deepens along a cold front extending from northern MO into WI.
The corridor along and just east of the low/front will be the area
of concern for strong/severe thunderstorms today.
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along the front over MO.
Convection is expected to intensify and build northward toward the
surface low by early afternoon. CAM solutions indicate that the
bowing convective structures will not be substantially undercut by
the front, suggesting the activity will remain primarily
surface-based. This supports a risk of damaging wind gusts in the
stronger cores. Forecast soundings show strengthening low-level
shear across the threat area through the afternoon as the deepening
low helps to back/enhance near-surface winds. This could promote
the development of a few semi-discrete supercells along the line,
posing a risk of a few tornadoes.
The activity will track northeastward across Lake MI this evening
and eventually into northern Lower MI. Thermodynamic parameters
will be rather weak over this area, but there is some potential for
a lingering risk of locally strong/damaging wind gusts.
...FL...
Relatively strong deep southeasterly flow is present today across
the FL peninsula. A moist and moderately unstable air mass is also
in place across the region, with broken sunshine this afternoon
helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. Local VAD profiles show
25-35 knot winds in the 0-3km layer. Most CAM solutions show
relatively fast-moving thunderstorms affecting the region, posing a
risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Cook.. 11/10/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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