Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
39,322
5,130,440
Grand Rapids, MI...South Bend, IN...Gary, IN...Hammond, IN...Champaign, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
21,970
3,502,817
Grand Rapids, MI...South Bend, IN...Gary, IN...Kalamazoo, MI...Wyoming, MI...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 110033
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
A line of thunderstorms capable of producing strong to locally
damaging wind gusts will continue for a few more hours this evening
across parts of southwestern lower Michigan into northern Indiana.
...01z Update -- Lower Michigan into Indiana...
The Slight risk has been expanded eastward across parts of
southwestern lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A well-organized
line of storms with a history of wind gusts between 50-60 kt over
the past 1-2 hours continues to track eastward this evening. This
line of storms currently extends from southeastern portions of Lake
Michigan southwestward into eastern IL. At least a brief period of
severe potential will extend downstream where weak instability and
strong shear is present. With time and eastward extent, the boundary
layer should begin to stabilize with loss of daytime heating, and
stronger forcing will begin to lift north/northeast of the area,
lessening severe potential.
Otherwise, the only other changes at 01z were to remove the Marginal
risk across Florida where severe potential has decreased this
evening, and to adjust the 10% general thunder line per latest
observational trends.
..Leitman.. 11/11/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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