SPC AC 150043

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and the threat of a few
   tornadoes this evening into tonight over parts of Missouri and
   Arkansas.

   ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   The latest water vapor imagery has an upper-level trough over the
   central Plains with west-southwest mid-level flow over the southern
   and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. At the
   surface, a cold front is moving east-southeastward across far
   eastern Kansas with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture in
   far western Arkansas extending northward into far southwest
   Missouri. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s F along the moist axis
   which is contributing to a pocket of moderate instability, with the
   RAP showing MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Strong to severe
   thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern end of this moderate
   instability from far northeastern Oklahoma into western Missouri. 

   The storms are located near the nose of a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet,
   which is creating strong deep-layer shear and enhancing lift across
   the Ozarks. The Springfield WSR-88D VWP is sampling the mid-level
   jet well with 0-6 km shear near 85 kt. This will be favorable
   supercell development early this evening. In addition to the
   mid-level jet, a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP
   over southwest Missouri. This is helping to create conditions
   supportive of a tornado threat. Tornadoes will be possible over the
   next few hours with cells that remain semi-discrete on the western
   side of the low-level jet. The greatest potential for tornadoes will
   exist from northwest Arkansas into southwest and central Missouri.
   Cell coverage is expected to dramatically increase by mid evening
   with a squall-line organizing ahead of the front. The squall-line
   will move east-southeastward across much of Missouri this evening.
   The line appears likely to also develop southwestward into central
   and northern Arkansas during the mid to late evening. Wind damage
   will be possible with the stronger portions of the line. Parts of
   the line that approach and cross the Mississippi River will
   encounter weaker instability, marginalizing the severe threat.

   ..Broyles.. 11/15/2020

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