New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...
MARGINAL
132,661
35,356,299
Detroit, MI...Boston, MA...Virginia Beach, VA...Pittsburgh, PA...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
59,599
45,197,127
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...
5 %
132,920
35,401,478
Detroit, MI...Boston, MA...Virginia Beach, VA...Pittsburgh, PA...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 151629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OH AND
THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible with low-topped
showers and thunderstorms from the Lower Great Lakes to the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States through early tonight.
...Lower Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Lower MI into
western OH with a history of widespread strong to isolated severe
wind gusts. This initial activity may struggle to further intensify
owing to boundary-layer dew points in the lower 50s within a narrow
spatial corridor ahead of this convection. It should eventually
outpace this narrow wedge of surface-based instability as it spreads
east/north of Lake Erie later this afternoon.
A more pronounced squall line is expected to develop around 21-23Z
from central NY to central VA and sweep east-northeast across the
Northeast and New England coast through early tonight within an
intense shear/minimally buoyant environment. This squall should
develop as the robust cold front impinges on low-level moisture
advecting north from the Carolinas/South Atlantic Coast. Between
00-03Z, mid 50s boundary-layer dew points should reach as far north
as eastern PA into southern New England along the track of secondary
cyclogenesis. While low-level lapse rates will probably remain
weaker relative to the Lower Great Lakes region, the comparatively
richer low-level moisture should compensate. It is plausible that
lightning generation may be confined to areas farther north amid
scant elevated buoyancy and greater large-scale ascent.
Nevertheless, the presence of a low-topped squall line amid 50-60 kt
925-mb winds suggest strong to severe wind gusts are possible even
in the absence of lightning. As such, this region has been upgraded
to Slight Risk.
..Grams/Dean.. 11/15/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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