Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
42,170
35,949,551
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 160053
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Low-topped showers and thunderstorms associated with damaging wind
gusts will move across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, eastern New York
and New England this evening into the early overnight period.
...Mid-Atlantic/Eastern New York/New England...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively tiled shortwave
trough moving northeastward across the lower Great Lakes region. At
the surface, a 986 mb low is located in eastern Ontario with a cold
front moving eastward across the lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic
states. A narrow convective line with sparse lightning is located
along the front in eastern Pennsylvania with additional short lines
of convection further south in Maryland and northern Virginia. The
WSR-88D VWPs at Albany, New York and Dover, Delaware both have very
strong winds just above the surface with about 65 kt at 1 km above
ground level. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the
narrow band will be effective at mixing this wind to the surface,
resulting in damaging wind gusts..see MCD 1804. The potential for
damaging wind gusts will extend northward into eastern New York as
the northern end of the line moves eastward this evening, eventually
affecting parts of southern and eastern New England...see MCD 1805.
..Broyles.. 11/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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