Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
5,967
46,336
Woodward, OK...
2 %
145,051
13,849,557
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
39,035
2,926,190
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Edmond, OK...
SPC AC 241302
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING OKLAHOMA...TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from mid/late afternoon into
tonight across portions of northern Texas, Oklahoma, and southern
Kansas to the Ozarks, Mid-South, and Ark-La-Tex regions. Large hail
and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards.
...Central/Southern Plains to Ozarks...
A shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners area early this
morning will eject east-northeastward today and reach the Ozarks
tonight, with a 90+ kt polar jet overspreading Oklahoma/northern
Texas toward the Ozarks as the system takes on an increasingly
negative tilt. Surface cyclogenesis will initially occur across the
south-central High Plains today, with middle/upper 50s F surface
dewpoints developing northward into far eastern Texas Panhandle and
western Oklahoma by late afternoon.
As intense height falls/forcing for ascent arrive into the region,
initial near-surface-based storm development/intensification should
occur within the immediate post-surface-frontal regime across the
Oklahoma/northern Texas Panhandles by around mid-afternoon, with
this convection developing east-northeastward and intensifying
toward the triple point vicinity into northwest Oklahoma through
early evening. Despite modest boundary layer moisture, relatively
cool mid-level thermal profiles and steep lapse rates will support
adequate instability for severe-caliber storms in the presence of
very strong vertical shear. A few initial supercells capable of
large hail are expected, along with some tornado risk particularly
across northwest/west-central Oklahoma. Upscale growth into bands
should otherwise occur during the evening with an increasing
potential for damaging winds as storms race east-northeastward
across northern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas.
...ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Farther south-southeast, a somewhat separate corridor of at least
isolated severe thunderstorm development could occur across
northeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana roughly
from mid-evening into the overnight. As the warm front moves
north-northeastward across the region tonight, guidance such as the
NAM/RAP suggest a weakening trend of convective inhibition
nocturnally in conjunction with an increasing prevalence of low/mid
60s F surface dewpoints. While uncertainties remain regarding the
magnitude of the severe risk across this region, a late-night
through early morning damaging wind/tornado risk cannot be
discounted. Observational/short-term guidance trends will be
reevaluated today for a possible categorical Slight Risk
upgrade/regional expansion.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/24/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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