SPC AC 260059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

   Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal risk for a strong wind gust or two exists over a small
   portion of the Ohio Valley early this evening and a small part of
   the Southeast States later during the evening.

   ...Ohio Valley...

   A strongly forced band of low-topped convection with very little
   lightning activity persists across western OH into northern KY.
   Activity is embedded within strong wind profiles with 50 kt observed
   just below 1 km on VWP data. A strong wind gust or two cannot be
   ruled out in association with this activity through about 03Z, but
   the thermodynamic environment is very marginal with MLCAPE near or
   less than 200 J/kg. Further weakening is expected toward mid evening
   as activity continues east toward more limited instability. 

   ...Southeast States...

   Models continue to indicate that another round of thunderstorms will
   develop later this evening from central through northeast AL into
   northwest GA along and just ahead of a cold front as a weak impulse
   rotates through the base of the OH Valley shortwave trough. The
   thermodynamic environment in this region will remain very marginal
   as depicted by the 00Z RAOB from Birmingham. Through 0-2 km winds
   will tend to slowly veer and weaken as the primary low-level jet
   develops northward toward the OH Valley, vertical shear profiles
   will remain strong. Although it is likely that developing storms
   will be at least slightly elevated above a stable surface layer, a
   strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out.

   ..Dial.. 11/26/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z