Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
32,024
2,227,782
Tallahassee, FL...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...Valdosta, GA...Panama City, FL...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 291622
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
today and tonight, from parts of the central Gulf Coast to the
eastern Carolinas.
...LA to GA/FL...
Morning water vapor loop shows a significant shortwave trough moving
across OK/AR, with an associated 80kt mid-level jet max rotating
into LA/MS. This feature is resulting in cyclogenesis off the LA
coast, with a warm front extending eastward from the low roughly
along the Gulf coast of MS/AL/FL. The surface low and warm front
will move slightly inland this afternoon and evening, with
moist/unstable air overspreading the coastal counties of this
region. Forecast soundings show ample low-level and deep-layer
shear, favorable for a few supercells and the risk of isolated
tornadoes or damaging wind gusts. Activity will move into southwest
GA after dark, where a slightly more stable environment should
result in a weakening trend of the storms.
...Eastern NC...
As the aforementioned upper system moves eastward, significant
intensification of the southerly low-level jet is forecast to occur
over the Carolinas/VA. This will result in a corridor of rapid
destabilization after midnight over parts of eastern NC as dewpoints
rise into the mid/upper 60s. Vertical shear will be quite strong,
and 12z CAM solutions suggest a few rotating storms may develop.
There is a risk of a few tornadoes overnight in this region.
..Hart/Kerr.. 11/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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