Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Wilmington, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
5,274
160,738
Havelock, NC...
2 %
11,297
3,120,316
Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Wilmington, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
5,255
164,125
Havelock, NC...
5 %
13,019
4,177,353
Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Wilmington, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 161654
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of coastal North
Carolina and west-central Florida.
...NC...
An intense shortwave trough is tracking across the lower MS and TN
valleys today, with large-scale forcing overspreading much of the
southeast US. Surface cyclogenesis is currently occurring off the
SC/NC coast. Latest radar loop shows a line of showers and
thunderstorms developing in vicinity of the surface low/warm front.
These storms are expected to track northward today and affect the
coastal counties of eastern NC. Most model solutions keep
surface-based CAPE over the Sound and Outer Banks. Nevertheless,
strong vertical shear may support supercell structures in this
activity, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a brief
tornado. This threat should end by 23z as storms move out to sea.
...FL...
Scattered thunderstorms are occurring this morning over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico, along and ahead of an approaching cold
front. There is considerable doubt that storms can maintain this
strength as they move ashore into west-central FL this afternoon,
due to the limited moisture/instability over that region. While a
storm or two may produce gusty winds, the overall severe threat
appears marginal.
..Hart.. 12/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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