Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Galveston, TX...Texas City, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
7,754
386,297
Victoria, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...Angleton, TX...Bay City, TX...Freeport, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,501
1,059,718
Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Galveston, TX...Texas City, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,709
1,089,800
Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Galveston, TX...Texas City, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...
SPC AC 190526
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the middle/upper Texas Coast.
...TX Coast...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a mid-level short-wave
trough digging southeast across NM toward west TX. 500mb speed max
associated with this feature is forecast to translate into the lower
MS Valley by 18z, which will encourage a weak surface low to
approach the middle TX Coast early, before shifting east as flow
aloft veers quickly with the passing short wave. As a result,
modified boundary-layer moisture will struggle to advance
appreciably inland with the greatest penetration expected along the
middle TX Coast around mid day. Prior to this, elevated buoyancy is
expected to increase farther inland early in the period which should
encourage convection rooted near 850mb. With time, surface-based
thunderstorms should evolve along the advancing cold font and across
the warm sector, which should remain predominantly offshore.
Strengthening wind fields and adequate buoyancy suggest supercell
structures are possible, though clustering and line segments should
also be noted. Wind, some hail threat, and perhaps a tornado or two
are the hazards possible with this activity.
..Darrow/Dean.. 12/19/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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