Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 200527
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from Florida to the
Carolina Coast.
...FL/Carolina Coast...
Progressive short-wave trough currently located over the lower MS
Valley will eject east into GA early in the period, deamplifying in
response to a digging short-wave over the central Plains. This lead
feature will encourage a weak surface low to track across the
northern Gulf Basin into the FL Big Bend region by 21/00z. Ahead of
this disturbance, modified Gulf air mass will spread toward the FL
Gulf Coast enabling weak buoyancy to materialize along the southern
fringe of the influence of the GA short wave. Forecast soundings
suggest near-surface based convection could develop ahead of the
surface wave within a weak warm advection regime. While deep-layer
flow would seemingly support supercells, low-level shear is not
forecast to be that strong and any organization would likely remain
sub-severe. Although, gusty winds could be noted with a few
thunderstorms as they move onshore.
..Darrow/Dean.. 12/20/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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