Dec 21, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 21 00:37:16 UTC 2020 (20201221 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20201221 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20201221 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 6,608 2,644,570 Cape Coral, FL...Brandon, FL...Sarasota, FL...Fort Myers, FL...Port Charlotte, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20201221 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 5,832 2,153,656 Cape Coral, FL...Brandon, FL...Sarasota, FL...Fort Myers, FL...Port Charlotte, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20201221 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 6,618 2,584,199 Cape Coral, FL...Sarasota, FL...Fort Myers, FL...Port Charlotte, FL...North Fort Myers, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20201221 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 210037

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020

   Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL FL GULF COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect parts of the western
   Florida Peninsula through late this evening.

   ...01z Update...

   Convection that persists along the southern fringe of the GA
   short-wave trough continues to sag slowly southeast. Leading edge of
   this activity has progressed inland across the Tampa Bay region
   where modest lapse rates/buoyancy remain conducive for a few robust
   updrafts. 00z sounding from TBW appears to be convectively
   influenced, but nevertheless insightful with strong deep-layer
   vertical shear and near-surface based instability present. Will
   maintain MRGL Risk for the central Gulf Coast of the FL Peninsula
   for primarily gusty winds with thunderstorms as they progress
   inland.

   ..Darrow.. 12/21/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z