SPC AC 040634

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2020

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN
   AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable Wednesday across the
   central Gulf Coast states with possible severe weather extending
   east into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle overnight
   Wednesday.  A few tornadoes are possible from parts of Louisiana
   eastward into Mississippi and Alabama.  Wind damage may accompany
   the more intense storms.

   ...Central Gulf Coast states...
   A large-scale mid-level trough initially over the central High
   Plains extending southward into northwestern Mexico will gradually
   translate east into the Plains states during the period.  A
   disturbance moving through the base of the trough will move from
   southwest TX to the Ozark Plateau by early evening and subsequently
   to the southwest Great Lakes.  Accompanying this mid-level impulse,
   strengthening southwesterly flow fields will overspread a
   destabilizing warm sector across the central Gulf Coast states.  In
   the low levels, surface cyclogenesis is progged over northern LA by
   midday Wednesday with the low developing northeastward along a
   stalled frontal zone into the OH Valley late Wednesday night.  

   Model guidance is in good agreement on the relative placement of the
   frontal zone extending from LA northeast into middle TN.  South of
   this boundary, low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase
   with surface dewpoints expected to rise into the lower-middle 60s
   deg F.  Coincident with surface cyclogenesis, sufficient heating
   forecast during the diurnal heating cycle will likely lead to a
   weakly to moderately unstable airmass from central LA northeast into
   MS/AL.  Models appear to favor a few convective scenarios which may
   play out on Wednesday with 1) initial storm development over LA near
   the boundary in proximity to stronger forcing to the west/northwest,
   and 2) potential warm-sector development farther east in southern MS
   in between I-10 and I-20 near a maritime front.  Forecast hodographs
   vary slightly between different model guidance but a general
   supercell-wind profile would support the stronger warm-sector
   initiating storms to develop into supercells with all severe hazards
   possible.  The strengthening 700-mb flow during the day lends some
   confidence in storm evolution featuring a mix of cells and
   convective bands.  As storms move east during the evening and
   overnight, a gradual decrease in instability will probably favor the
   greatest severe risk becoming confined closer to the coastal plain
   as the activity moves into eastern AL/western GA and the FL
   Panhandle.

   ..Smith.. 02/04/2020

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