Mar 19, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 19 17:24:44 UTC 2020 (20200319 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20200319 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200319 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 259,478 68,360,123 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200319 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 131,953 49,048,426 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200319 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 259,151 68,501,539 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200319 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 60,632 4,629,395 Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Jackson, MS...Tuscaloosa, AL...Hoover, AL...
   SPC AC 191724

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing mainly wind
   damage may occur Friday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the
   Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Isolated strong to severe storms are
   also possible across portions of the Southeast states.

   ...Synopsis...
   Moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft will be in place from
   the southern High Plains through the Great Lakes region and
   Northeast states early Friday morning. A compact shortwave trough
   and accompanying jet streak embedded within the southwesterly flow 
   are forecast to progress northeastward through the Lower Great Lakes
   and Northeast. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the
   wake of the lead wave, moving eastward across Ontario, the Upper
   Great Lakes, and Quebec. Surface low attendant to this second
   shortwave will occlude throughout the period as it moves
   northeastward across Quebec.

   Farther south, a convectively enhanced shortwave will move
   northeastward across TX and the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South into the
   TN Valley. 

   Both of these systems are expected to promote thunderstorm
   development and a Marginal risk for severe weather (discussed in
   more detail below).

   ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
   Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
   the period from middle TN into the Upper OH Valley within the
   confluent low-level flow and broad forcing for ascent ahead of the
   approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. This area of
   showers and thunderstorms is expected to progress northeastward in
   step with the shortwave trough. As it does, it will become
   increasingly displaced from the higher low-level moisture and
   instability. As such, a diminishing trend in both coverage and
   intensity appears likely. However, given the strong low/mid-level
   flow (i.e. 850mb winds over 45 kt and 500mb winds over 90 kt) bowing
   line segments capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are still
   possible. 

   Additional thunderstorm development is possible along the cold front
   as it moves across the Northeast states late Friday afternoon.
   Instability will be weak but very strong deep-layer shear could
   still result in shallow bowing line segments capable of damaging
   wind gusts.

   Given the strength of the low-level flow, a tornado or two cannot be
   ruled out, although the veering of the low-level flow and linear
   nature of the convective mode will temper the overall potential. 

   ...East/Southeast TX into the Southeast...
   Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over portions of
   the central into east/southeast TX early Friday morning. This
   activity is expected to gradually move eastward through the Lower MS
   Valley and into northern/central MS and AL throughout the day.
   Instability will be limited with much of the early period activity
   but limited diurnal heating across southern LA and MS/AL will likely
   result in at least modest instability ahead of the storms by the
   early afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak but deep-layer
   flow will remain strong, supporting the potential for a few more
   organized storms along the outflow. Storms may have difficulty
   staying ahead of the outflow, which will limit storm longevity and
   the overall severe potential. Even so, a few instance of severe hail
   and/or damaging wind gusts are possible.

   ..Mosier.. 03/19/2020

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