Mar 30, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 30 17:28:33 UTC 2020 (20200330 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20200330 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200330 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 62,676 4,086,781 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Savannah, GA...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...
MARGINAL 85,562 9,548,245 Birmingham, AL...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200330 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 55,174 3,724,786 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Savannah, GA...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...
2 % 73,148 6,336,639 Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...Charleston, SC...North Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200330 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 62,676 4,086,781 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Savannah, GA...Macon, GA...Albany, GA...
5 % 85,562 9,554,406 Jacksonville, FL...Birmingham, AL...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200330 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 43,355 2,611,801 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Warner Robins, GA...
5 % 67,802 5,811,872 Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Macon, GA...Gulfport, MS...
   SPC AC 301728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AL/GA...AND FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday over
   parts of southern/central Alabama and Georgia, as well as southern
   coastal South Carolina. Strong to damaging winds gusts, large hail,
   and a few tornadoes may occur.

   ...Southeast...
   A shortwave trough will move eastward across the lower MS Valley and
   Southeast on Tuesday, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast by
   Tuesday night. A surface low initially centered over central MS
   should develop eastward across AL/GA through the day while slowly
   deepening, before moving off the coast of SC Tuesday evening. A
   marine warm front is forecast to lift northward in advance of the
   surface low across parts of southern/central MS/AL/GA, and perhaps
   far southern coastal SC.

   Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, and perhaps approaching
   70 F in some locations across the FL Panhandle/southern GA, combined
   with diurnal heating should support an increasingly unstable airmass
   to the south of the warm front by Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg should develop, particularly from southern/central AL
   eastward across GA. Wind fields at both low and mid levels are
   forecast to increase through the day as the shortwave trough
   develops eastward. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will likely
   support organized updrafts, including the potential for a few
   supercells. A 30-40 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet will
   overspread the warm sector, but low-level winds are expected to
   gradually veer to southwesterly Tuesday afternoon, which may limit
   effective SRH to some extent. Still, isolated large hail and a
   couple tornadoes will be possible with any supercells that can form
   along/south of the warm front. There may also be a tendency for
   small clusters/bowing segments to develop and consolidate across
   parts of southern/central GA and far southern coastal SC Tuesday
   afternoon. Damaging winds could become an increasing concern if the
   convective mode transitions from semi-discrete to mainly linear.

   ..Gleason.. 03/30/2020

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