Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 301728
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AL/GA...AND FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL SC...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday over
parts of southern/central Alabama and Georgia, as well as southern
coastal South Carolina. Strong to damaging winds gusts, large hail,
and a few tornadoes may occur.
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the lower MS Valley and
Southeast on Tuesday, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast by
Tuesday night. A surface low initially centered over central MS
should develop eastward across AL/GA through the day while slowly
deepening, before moving off the coast of SC Tuesday evening. A
marine warm front is forecast to lift northward in advance of the
surface low across parts of southern/central MS/AL/GA, and perhaps
far southern coastal SC.
Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, and perhaps approaching
70 F in some locations across the FL Panhandle/southern GA, combined
with diurnal heating should support an increasingly unstable airmass
to the south of the warm front by Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg should develop, particularly from southern/central AL
eastward across GA. Wind fields at both low and mid levels are
forecast to increase through the day as the shortwave trough
develops eastward. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will likely
support organized updrafts, including the potential for a few
supercells. A 30-40 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet will
overspread the warm sector, but low-level winds are expected to
gradually veer to southwesterly Tuesday afternoon, which may limit
effective SRH to some extent. Still, isolated large hail and a
couple tornadoes will be possible with any supercells that can form
along/south of the warm front. There may also be a tendency for
small clusters/bowing segments to develop and consolidate across
parts of southern/central GA and far southern coastal SC Tuesday
afternoon. Damaging winds could become an increasing concern if the
convective mode transitions from semi-discrete to mainly linear.
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