SPC AC 091731

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Sat May 09 2020

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion
   of the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon and far south Florida into the
   Florida Keys during the day.

   ...Ohio Valley region...

   Strong shortwave trough currently situated over the northern Plains
   will continue through the Ohio Valley Sunday accompanied by a cold
   front. Preceding the front, low-level moisture will remain limited.
   However, low 40s F dewpoints should advect northeast in a narrow
   corridor through the pre-frontal warm sector beneath steepening
   (7-7.5 C/km) mid level lapse rates associated with cold air aloft.
   These processes along with diabatic heating of the surface layer
   will result in 300-600 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms are expected to develop
   along and just ahead of the front within corridor of strong DPVA and
   ascent accompanying the shortwave trough. This activity may congeal
   into line segments as it advances east. Primary threat will be
   strong to damaging wind gusts and possibly some marginally severe
   hail. The limited low-level moisture return and resulting weak
   instability should serve as limiting factors for a more robust
   threat. However, a SLGT might be needed in later updates if it
   begins to appear instability will be greater than currently
   anticipated.
     
   ...Florida Keys...

   Numerous storms will likely be ongoing early Sunday in association
   with an approaching shortwave trough interacting with an east-west
   oriented pre-frontal boundary. While 0-6 km shear of up to 40 kt and
   veering low-level wind profiles will be sufficient for a few storms
   to develop updraft rotation, the primary storm mode is expected to
   remain multicellular. Moreover, the widespread nature of early
   convection will limit instability. Nevertheless, a few storms might
   be capable of producing locally strong wind gusts.

   ...Southeast New Mexico through southwest Texas...

   Modest low-level moisture will return through southwest TX beneath
   steep lapse rates resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms are
   expected to develop during the afternoon over the higher terrain and
   within an evolving upslope flow regime. A few of these storms could
   produce hail and locally strong wind gusts through early evening.

   ..Dial.. 05/09/2020

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