New York, NY...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Boston, MA...Oklahoma City, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...San Angelo, TX...
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
New York, NY...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Boston, MA...Tulsa, OK...
SPC AC 141741
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the Northeast
States Friday afternoon as well as the central High Plains and
southern Plains and Ozark Plateau Friday afternoon into Friday
...Northeast States and Ohio Valley regions...
Shortwave trough now situated over ND near the international border
will continue into the Great Lakes Friday, reaching the northeast
states later Friday afternoon and evening. A low amplitude impulse
may precede this feature. By late afternoon the accompanying cold
front should extend from a surface low in upstate NY southwest into
the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley. Warm front will extend from the
surface low through southern New England. Modest low-level moisture
with upper 50s to around 60 F dewpoints will advect through the
pre-frontal warm sector and contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as
the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to redevelop along and ahead of the front by early to mid
afternoon within the weakly capped, destabilizing warm sector. A
mid-level jet within the base of the approaching shortwave trough
will contribute to 35-45 kt effective bulk shear over the northeast
U.S. supporting organized storms including a few supercells and
bowing segments with damaging wind the main threat. The low-level
jet is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into early evening
across the northeast U.S. with 0-1 km hodographs becoming sufficient
for isolated tornadoes, especially with any storms interacting with
the warm front across southern New England. Farther west across OH,
deep-layer shear will be weaker, but wind profiles with 40-45 kt
flow in the 700-500 mb layer will be supportive of a few damaging
wind gusts as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon.
...Southern Plains and Ozark Plateau...
An MCS will likely be ongoing from southeast KS through northeast OK
early Friday, and this activity might pose an ongoing threat for a
few strong to damaging wind gusts. Rich low-level moisture will
return northward through the Southern Plains beneath steep lapse
rates contributing to very unstable conditions Friday afternoon with
3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE likely. Storms will likely redevelop along
dryline across west TX into southwest OK near the dryline/outflow
boundary intersection by mid to late afternoon. Vertical shear will
remain weak and supportive of multicells, but the thermodynamic
environment will favor large hail and damaging wind. Storms are
expected to congeal into line segments during by evening and
continue eastward through TX. A southern-stream shortwave trough
will move through southwest TX and northern Mexico during the
evening and may contribute to a more persistent organized MCS in
that region. Storms may reach southern TX toward the end of the
period. An upgrade to enhanced may be needed for a portion of this
region in later updates.
...Central High Plains...
Modest low-level moisture will return northward through the central
High Plains beneath steep lapse rates contributing to modest
instability with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms are expected to
develop over the higher terrain and along lee trough and spread
eastward into the High Plains during the afternoon. Winds aloft
accompanying a low-amplitude shortwave trough will contribute to
sufficient vertical shear (35-40 kt) for some supercell structures,
possibly evolving into a linear MCS during the evening. Damaging
wind and large hail will be the primary threats.
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