SPC AC 201726

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms are expected late Thursday from southwest Kansas
   into the Panhandles region, with primarily hail and strong wind
   gusts. Isolated severe storms may develop into Texas, over parts of
   the Carolinas, and over south Florida.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low will remain over the OH Valley, drifting slowly north.
   This will maintain enhanced winds aloft over much of the Southeast,
   with cool midlevel temperatures as far south as FL. Southeast
   surface winds across the Mid Atlantic will maintain a moist and
   unstable air mass, mainly over the eastern Carolinas, aiding storm
   potential, while stronger instability develops over FL.

   To the west, moisture and instability will also favor strong to
   severe storms from TX into the central high Plains, where southerly
   low-level winds will persist, beneath modest midlevel
   southwesterlies associated with a departing upper wave to the noth.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...
   A less trough will deepen during the afternoon, with low over the TX
   Panhandle. Upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will be common near the
   surface trough, resulting in an axis of strong MLCAPE values from
   northwest TX into western KS. Storms are expected to form after 21Z
   from southeast CO and northeast NM into southwest KS and the OK/TX
   Panhandles. Large hail appears to be the main threat, although a
   brief tornado is possible as wind profiles will be sufficient for a
   few supercells. While relatively cool boundary-layer temperatures
   will limit the eastward extent of the severe threat late in the day,
   storms may persist overnight to the east overnight in an elevated
   manner.

   ...South Florida...
   Strong heating with cool temperatures aloft will lead to substantial
   instability during the day over the Peninsula. Convergence is
   forecast to increase over central areas, with a cluster of storms
   likely during the afternoon. Weak winds aloft support the idea of
   strong and perhaps locally severe pulse/multicell storms producing
   microbursts and marginal hail.

   ...Carolinas...
   Easterly winds will maintain a moist air mass, with veering winds
   with height east of the upper low. The uncapped atmosphere may
   result in storms scattered throughout the day, and a few may become
   capable of localized strong wind gusts.

   ..Jewell.. 05/20/2020

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