Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
74,298
4,968,565
Tulsa, OK...Springfield, MO...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...
5 %
239,098
35,209,985
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Charlotte, NC...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
43,916
2,427,467
Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...Fort Smith, AR...Allen, TX...
5 %
266,200
37,233,327
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Charlotte, NC...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
SPC AC 211735
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Friday over parts of the central and
southern Plains, with damaging wind, hail, and a tornado possible.
Isolated severe storms are also possible along a corridor from the
Tennessee Valley eastward into the Carolinas.
...KS/MO/OK/AR/TX...
An MCS may be ongoing Friday morning across northern OK into
southern KS, in association with a midlevel shortwave trough.
Already by this time, instability will be quite large, although
initially elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates, ample flow
aloft and the possibility of storm organization suggest severe wind
or hail will be possible. This system will likely weaken later in
the day as it eventually loses the stronger instability.
Outflow from this system may extend roughly from southwest MO or
northeast OK into northwest TX, where it will link with a dryline.
Although height tendencies will be rather neutral in the wake of the
earlier storms, extreme instability is forecast to develop. A plume
of steep lapse rates from northwest TX into southwest OK will help
remove CIN by late afternoon, and convergence along the boundary
should favor late afternoon and evening storms. Damaging hail and
wind is the most likely threat across the Red River Valley and
vicinity.
For eastern OK into western AR, stronger SRH will exist, along with
ample moisture with dewpoints in the lower 70s F. Storms that
develop here may have better tornado potential, at least briefly.
...TN Valley into the Carolinas...
An upper low will drift northeast across the upper OH Valley, with a
band of 50 kt midlevel westerlies across the TN Valley and
Appalachians. A warm front will lift north across the same areas,
with ample moisture and heating south of the front resulting in
1000-2000 MLCAPE. Isolated storms are likely to form during the day,
traveling east/southeast. A supercell is possible, with effective
SRH over 200 m2/s2 with the lifting warm front.
..Jewell.. 05/21/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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