SPC AC 241734

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind
   gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are expected across parts of
   western and central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Additional
   strong storms are possible from northeast Texas into western
   Missouri, as well as southern Florida and parts of the Upper
   Midwest.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper trough from the northern High Plains to the southern
   Rockies will slowly shift eastward into the Plains by Tuesday
   morning. At the surface, a cold front will extend southwestward from
   central MN to northwest OK and southeast NM. Southerly low level
   flow will allow for airmass recovery from expected convection in the
   Day 1/Sunday/Sunday night period across portions of the southern
   Plains, ahead of the cold front. As a result, widespread 60s
   dewpoints are expected ahead of the front from TX into the Upper
   Midwest and points eastward. Several smaller-scale features will aid
   in strong to severe thunderstorm development from western Texas into
   the Ozarks, parts of the Upper Midwest and the southern/central FL
   Peninsula. 

   ...Western/Central TX and into far Southwest OK...

   Forecast guidance, including CAMs and HREF/SREF, remain consistent
   in the development of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front across
   parts of western TX during the afternoon. At least low to mid 60s
   surface dewpoints are expected to be in place, beneath very steep
   midlevel lapse rates, resulting in MLCAPE values in the 2000-3000
   J/kg range. Deep layer flow will not be particularly strong, but
   vertically veering profiles will result in effective shear greater
   than 35 kt, indicating supercells are possible. In addition to steep
   lapse rates, long, fairly straight hodographs above 3km further
   indicate favorable conditions for large hail, some larger than 2
   inches in diameter. 

   As forcing increases during the late afternoon/evening upscale
   growth is expected and one or more bowing segments are forecast to
   track across parts of central TX and possibly into south TX. This
   will increase the damaging wind risk. Backed low level flow and
   moist/very unstable 0-3km conditions also could result in a couple
   of tornadoes, mainly across parts of the Edwards Plateau and middle
   Rio Grande Valley. 

   ...East TX into Eastern KS/Western MO...

   An MCV is expected to influence convection across this region on
   Monday. A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place, but
   effective shear will mainly favor multi-cell convection. Some
   enhancement of shear via the MCV as well as some strengthening of
   850-700mb winds as the upper trough shifts eastward should occur. 
   This should result in at least some transient organized cells
   capable of mainly strong/locally damaging gusts via wet microbursts.


   ...Southern/Central FL Panhandle...

   A tropical wave moving across FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico will
   result in a band of enhanced southeasterly flow across the region. A
   very moist airmass will be in place, though abundant cloud cover
   will limit destabilization with MLCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg
   expected. Nevertheless, a few strong storms could produce damaging
   wet microburst winds. Furthermore, curved low level hodographs in
   this very moist environment could result in a couple of brief
   tornadoes. 

   ...WI Vicinity...

   Warm-air advection (attendant to enhanced low-level flow) is
   forecast to support isolated strong/severe thunderstorms near the
   warm front extending across central WI, both early in the period and
   again Monday evening. This area will be on the edge of the stronger
   vertical shear, contributing to the potential for a few more
   robust/organized updrafts capable of hail.

   ..Leitman.. 05/24/2020

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