SPC AC 260554

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas
   Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

   ...Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley and Southeast..
   An upper cyclone and its attendant surface low are forecast to be
   centered over the Arklatex early Wednesday morning. This upper
   cyclone is then expected to drift northeastward, reaching southern
   MO by early Thursday morning. This northeastward drift differs from
   previous model solutions that kept the cyclone largely in place over
   the Arklatex throughout the day. Consequently, increased surface
   convergence over central TX now appears probable, contributing to a
   greater severe potential.

   Afternoon conditions over central TX will likely be characterized by
   temperatures in the mid/upper 80s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and
   moderate instability. Surface winds are expected to be generally
   southwesterly but there is some potential for more southerly or even
   southeasterly winds with eastern extent (i.e. southeast/east TX).
   These surface winds combined with the northwesterly flow aloft
   around the cyclone will result in moderate to strong vertical shear.

   The increase surface convergence and resulting ascent, which may be
   aided by a vorticity maximum rotating around the cyclone, is
   expected to result in convective initiation from
   northwest/north-central TX into southwest TX. A relatively discrete
   mode is anticipated for the first few hours after initiation, with
   some upscale growth/linear transition thereafter. Large hail will be
   the primary threat initially. The environment could also support
   some very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter), but there
   is still enough uncertainty to leave this out of the forecast for
   now. Damaging wind threat will increase with eastern extent as
   storms become more linear. As previously mentioned, surface winds
   become more southerly with eastern extent, so the resulting increase
   in low-level shear will support marginal tornado potential with any
   storms that do not become outflow dominant. 
    
   In addition to the storms over TX, scattered thunderstorms are
   expected from eastern OK through the Mid-South into the Southeast
   states. Limited instability and vertical shear currently results in
   low severe potential.

   ...Carolina Coast...
   Surface low associated with a tropical wave will likely be near the
   southern SC coast at the beginning of the period. The wave and low
   are forecast to lift northward throughout the day. This progression
   should bring the warm sector on shore, resulting in moist and
   moderately unstable environment along the Carolina coast. Enhanced
   low-level flow on the eastern periphery of the wave will overlap
   this warm sector, resulting in conditions that could support a few
   stronger, more persistent storms capable of damaging wind gust
   and/or brief tornadoes.

   ..Mosier.. 05/26/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z