Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
122,078
19,946,699
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
83,710
5,524,060
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Laredo, TX...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...
SPC AC 271729
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast New
Mexico/Texas eastward/northeastward to parts of the Middle and
Southern Atlantic Coast region Thursday afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms are also possible across portions of the
central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A large upper low, centered initially over the Ozarks region, is
expected to weaken with time, drifting northeastward and eventually
merging to some degree with a northern-stream trough digging
southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie Provinces and across the
Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes region. Elsewhere, strong ridging
will remain over the western Atlantic, with a second ridge
persisting over the West.
At the surface, a cold front associated with the aforementioned
northern-stream trough will shift southeastward across the
north-central U.S. with time, reaching a position from the Upper
Great Lakes/Midwest to the Central Plains through the end of the
period.
...Southeast NM/TX east-northeastward to the Atlantic Coast...
A broad, arcing zone of limited severe risk is evident from
southeastern NM/Texas eastward/northeastward across the central Gulf
Coast region and Mid South to the middle and southern Atlantic Coast
states.
From east Texas eastward/northeastward, generally weak lapse rates
aloft are expected, resulting in generally modest destabilization
through the afternoon. However, the broad belt of moderate cyclonic
flow atop the region will likely be sufficient to support isolated
storms/storm clusters which acquire some degree of organization,
sufficient to produce gusty/locally damaging winds. With any areas
of possibly more concentrated severe risk difficult to discern, and
likely dependent upon subtle features given the overall ill-defined
surface pattern, any slight risk upgrades will be deferred until
later forecasts.
Farther west across Texas, greater CAPE but a slightly weaker/less
favorable wind field is expected. Still, with steep lapse rates
sufficient for locally deep/robust updrafts, local hail/gusty wind
risk is expected with isolated stronger cells, through the afternoon
and into the evening hours before gradual diurnal weakening occurs.
...Central High Plains...
Afternoon storm development is expected to occur southeastern
Wyoming and eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon, as diurnal heating
of a modestly moist boundary layer permits development of
mixed-layer CAPE around 500 J/kg. With 20 to 30 kt northwesterly
mid-level flow expected across this region, some potential for gusty
winds is evident, given inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, and the
potential for evolution of one or two small clusters of storms
moving southeastward off the higher terrain into the evening hours.
..Goss.. 05/27/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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