Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Aurora, CO...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 290608
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday
afternoon/evening particularly across the Pacific Northwest, with
severe storms also possible across the High Plains and Mid-Atlantic
States.
...Pacific Northwest to northern High Plains...
An upper low and related mid/high-level jet streak are expected to
be located over central California Saturday morning, with these
features expected to steadily accelerate north-northeastward toward
Washington/Oregon/Idaho by Saturday morning, with strong surface
cyclogenesis expected east of the Cascades. The air mass should
moderately destabilize by afternoon especially from
north-central/northeast Oregon into central/eastern Washington, with
ample forcing for ascent expected to contribute to an initial uptick
of intensifying thunderstorms Saturday afternoon across
north-central/northeast Oregon. Very strong southerly winds through
a deep layer will could allow for a few supercells and more
prevalent northward-moving linear segments, which will likely spread
into central/eastern Washington by evening. Isolated severe hail and
severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible across the region.
...Northern/central High Plains...
Lee-side cyclogenesis and a sharpening lee trough will enhance moist
low-level easterly upslope flow across the region. Widely scattered
thunderstorms should develop/increase through mid/late afternoon
near the Rockies Front Range from Colorado into Wyoming/Montana.
Moderate destabilization and 30-40 kt effective shear will allow for
a few supercells and sustained multicells capable of isolated large
hail and strong wind gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected early in the morning across
the region, but precipitation should end with some clearing into the
afternoon ahead of a secondary cold front and weak surface wave.
Although some uncertainties exist regarding the timing of the front
and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, adequate
heating/destabilization (upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) into the
afternoon could allow for a few severe thunderstorms with wind
damage as the primary hazard.
...Northern/eastern Maine...
A cold front will steadily progress eastward across Maine Saturday
morning/early afternoon. Although southwesterly winds through a deep
layer will be strong, the early day passage of the cold front and
expectations for little or no surface-based buoyancy preceding it
suggest that the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts/hail should
remain low.
..Guyer.. 05/29/2020
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