Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Aurora, CO...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 291730
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday
afternoon/evening particularly across the Pacific Northwest, with
isolated severe risk arcing from there southeastward across the
northern and central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
While broad upper troughing shifts slowly eastward across the
eastern half of the U.S., an upper low is forecast to move
north-northeastward across northern California and the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. In between, ridging will prevail over the
Intermountain region.
At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly eastward across New
England and the Atlantic Coast states. In the West, a compact
surface low will shift northward across the Pacific Northwest ahead
of the upper system, while an arcing lee trough persists across the
northern and central High Plains.
...Pacific Northwest...
As ascent increases across Oregon and Washington through the day,
ahead of the upper low, thunderstorms are expected to develop within
a destabilizing environment as diurnal heating of a relatively moist
low-level airmass yields moderate (generally 1000 to 2000 J/kg)
mixed-layer CAPE across parts of central Oregon and into Washington.
Enhanced southerly flow through a deep layer will yield not only
ample shear for organized/rotating storms, but also fast storm
motions, with upscale growth into northward-moving clusters
expected. Along with risk for hail, locally damaging winds are
expected, as storms shift northward through the afternoon and
evening hours.
...Western Montana and across the northern/central High Plains...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in an
arc-shaped zone around the periphery of the upper ridge during the
afternoon as modest diurnal destabilization occurs, with development
aided by easterly/southeasterly low-level upslope flow.
Moderate/anticyclonic westerly/northwesterly winds aloft will
contribute to ample shear, such that a few storms may reach severe
levels, capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail locally. Storms
should continue into the evening hours, before diminishing
overnight.
...Coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia...
Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a storm or two nearing severe
levels -- are expected during the afternoon near/ahead of the
advancing cold front, and near sea-breeze boundaries. While shear
is expected to be weak, and thus storms largely disorganized, an
isolated gust or two capable of tree damage may occur, before storms
diminish by early evening.
..Goss.. 05/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
