Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
27,296
3,160,223
St. Paul, MN...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...Eagan, MN...Eden Prairie, MN...
2 %
84,466
8,171,834
Milwaukee, WI...Minneapolis, MN...Madison, WI...Grand Rapids, MI...Sioux Falls, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 010559
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Upper Midwest
and Upper Mississippi River Valley.
...Upper Midwest including eastern South Dakota to Wisconsin...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the region, particularly
Tuesday late afternoon through Tuesday evening within a corridor
spanning far eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota into southern
Wisconsin.
A flattening/strengthening belt of northern-tier westerlies (50+ kt
at 500 mb) will influence the region on Tuesday as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crosses the Canadian Prairies and International
Border vicinity. An increasingly moist air mass with around 70F
surface dewpoints is expected near a WSW/ENE-oriented front that
will extend roughly from the South Dakota/Nebraska border into
southern portions of Minnesota/Wisconsin by late afternoon. An
eastward-advecting elevated mixed layer and related capping will
tend to hinder deep convective development south of the front, while
otherwise contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE near the front as
inhibition erodes by Tuesday mid/late afternoon.
Current thinking is that scattered storms are most likely to
initially develop across eastern South Dakota/southwest Minnesota by
mid/late Tuesday afternoon, although the residual influences of
potential early day convection across northern South Dakota lead to
some timing/spatial uncertainties. Regardless, an increase in
surface-based convection is expected along the increasingly unstable
frontal zone. Vertical shear (30-45 kt effective) will be maximized
along and immediately north of the front, with initial supercells
expected given the degree of instability. Large hail (potentially
significant 2+ inch) should be the primary hazard initially.
However, storms will likely cluster/organize and grow upscale during
the evening as they move east-southeastward across southern
Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and northern Iowa. The damaging wind
potential would likely increase accordingly. The storms will likely
reach the southern Lake Michigan vicinity by late Tuesday night.
...North-central Plains...
Isolated high-based storms should develop Tuesday late
afternoon/early evening near the southeast-advancing front across
Nebraska and near the pre-frontal/lee trough extending into
southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. A separate corridor of severe
thunderstorms may occur within the post-frontal low-level upslope
flow regime across Wyoming and the Black Hills vicinity. Isolated
severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong wind gusts are
expected across the region.
..Guyer.. 06/01/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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