Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,390
118,116
Mitchell, SD...Pierre, SD...Huron, SD...
2 %
58,528
2,239,184
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
103,838
3,035,348
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...St. Joseph, MO...
SPC AC 030610
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Central Plains
and Middle Missouri River Valley on Thursday, with other
strong/severe thunderstorms possible across the southern High Plains
and from the Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic region.
...Central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley...
Guidance variability still exists in the Day 2 time frame, much of
which is a byproduct of potential MCS development tonight (Wednesday
night). Regardless, a severe risk is still probable particularly
across parts of Nebraska/South Dakota, which would be on the western
fringes of any convection/outflow/cold pool influences that linger
Thursday morning. Regardless, the region will be influenced by a
moderately strong belt of low-amplitude westerlies. A relatively
moist/potentially unstable air mass is expected to materialize near
a surface low/front along the South Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity
and along/east of a southward-extending surface trough across
west-central portions of Nebraska and Kansas.
Surface-based convective development appears most likely to occur by
mid/late afternoon across northeast Nebraska into southeast South
Dakota. Steep lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy (2000-3500
J/kg MLCAPE) in the presence of 40 kt effective shear will be
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and possibly some
tornado risk. One or more southeastward-moving forward-propagating
clusters of storms could evolve during the evening and spread
east-southeastward across the region with a wind/hail threat.
...Southern High Plains...
At least isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
within the hot/well-mixed boundary layer near a surface trough.
Adequate moisture and moderate buoyancy will support the possibility
of stronger storms, with some organization/sustenance possible aided
by strengthening mid-level northwesterly winds. Isolated severe
hail/wind appears possible including western portions of
Kansas/Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas particularly
during the late afternoon and evening hours.
...Central/Southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic States...
Near/south of a front across these regions, moderate instability may
develop particularly across parts of Virginia/Delmarva Thursday
afternoon. Deep-layer shear will not be strong, but 20-25 kt
mid-level westerlies are expected to overlie much of the frontal
corridor. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, with wind
damage as the primary hazard. A categorical Slight Risk could
eventually be warranted for parts of the region.
..Guyer.. 06/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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