SPC AC 031741

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Central
   Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/upper Midwest on Thursday, with other
   strong/severe thunderstorms possible across the southern High Plains
   and from the Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic region.

   ...Mid Missouri Valley/upper Midwest...
   Very subtle short-wave troughing within the fast westerly flow
   across the north-central U.S. is expected to shift eastward across
   the Dakotas during the afternoon, while diurnal
   heating/destabilization occurs from the South Dakota vicinity
   east-southeastward across the Mid Missouri Valley.  Models differ
   with respect to degree and location of storm initiation/development
   -- likely focused near subtle surface boundaries and possibly
   enhanced near the Black Hills as well.  However, with scattered to
   isolated storms expected to occur, shifting east-southeastward with
   time and possibly evolving into one or two small clusters, will
   maintain a rather broad slight risk area across the region.  Large
   hail and locally damaging winds appear likely to be the primary
   risks.  Storms may continue into the overnight hours into the IA
   vicinity, with some late/elevated storm redevelopment -- and
   associated hail potential -- possible across the Mid Missouri Valley
   area.

   ...southern High Plains to the Ozarks...
   Though uncertain in terms of precise location, models generally
   agree that a cluster of storms -- and possibly lingering severe risk
   -- will be moving southeastward/southward across the Ozarks region
   and vicinity early in the period.  The storms should continue
   advancing southeastward across Arkansas and into the Mississippi
   Delta region and Tennessee Valley through the afternoon -- with
   continued/local risk for wind/hail with a few stronger storms.

   Later, storm development farther west -- across the southern High
   Plains region -- is expected to occur during the afternoon,
   spreading across the Texas Panhandle/western North Texas and parts
   of Oklahoma through the evening.  Again, a few of the strongest
   storms will be capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts, and
   hail.  At this time, no slight risk upgrade will be added, due to
   ongoing uncertainties with respect to evolution/intensity of the
   convection.

   ...Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic...
   Latest model runs hint that a subtle upper disturbance/vort max will
   cross the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region during the
   day, supporting diurnal convective development as the airmass
   heats/destabilizes into the afternoon hours.  Some enhancement to
   the deep-layer wind field may accompany this feature, which could
   yield an uptick in severe risk -- mainly in the form of locally
   damaging winds.  While still a bit too uncertain at this time, a
   slight risk could be needed in later outlooks over parts of the
   PA/WV/MD/northern VA should it continue to appear that a couple of
   eastward-moving bands of storms may organize through the afternoon
   hours.

   ..Goss.. 06/03/2020

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