Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
120,370
5,332,837
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
120,186
5,326,758
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
SPC AC 040538
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts
of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and Northern Rockies to northern
High Plains.
...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
West northwest-mid level flow will be in place across the
north-central states on Friday as a 60 to 80 kt mid-level jet moves
across the Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to advance southward into the lower Missouri Valley with a
very moist airmass located to the south of the front. Surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower 70s F across much of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri, where strong instability
appears likely to be in place by afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent should remain weak across the lower to mid Missouri Valley,
low-level convergence along the front should be sufficient for the
initiation of scattered thunderstorms near the front. In addition to
the strong instability, 0-6 km shear values should range from 20 kt
near the front to about 40 kt in the post-frontal airmass. This
should be enough for a marginal severe threat with cells that can
develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong
gusty winds will be the primary threats.
...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will become more amplified across the northern
High Plains on Friday. At the surface, a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture and instability is forecast to become more
focused from eastern Wyoming into southern and central Montana.
Although large-scale ascent should not be that strong, increasing
low-level convergence associated with a lee trough and surface
heating should be enough for scattered thunderstorm development.
Thunderstorms appear likely to first develop in southern Montana
during the late afternoon and then spread northeastward into central
Montana by early evening. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer
shear should be favorable for isolated severe storms. Steep
mid-level lapse rates would support a hail threat. A few marginally
severe wind gusts may also occur.
..Broyles.. 06/04/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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