SPC AC 060600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
   NORTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MUCH OF
   NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are expected late Sunday afternoon through evening
   over parts of the northern Plains, with damaging winds, very large
   hail and a tornado threat. A few strong storms may affect the
   central Gulf Coast states related to tropical cyclone Cristobal.

   ...Northern Plains...
   A large upper trough will remain over the West, with a leading wave
   ejecting north out of ND early in the day. Behind this wave, strong
   southwesterly winds aloft will persist ahead of larger-scale upper
   speed max which will nose into the northern Plains late. Height
   falls will occur throughout the day over the region as low pressure
   forms over the central Dakotas, with deepening surface trough
   extending south into the western NE.

   Strong south/southeasterly surface winds will transport moisture
   northward across the MO Valley and into MN with a warm front lifting
   into southern MB and northern MN by 00Z. Strong heating will occur
   from SD southward into NE, with capping eroded by late afternoon.
   Winds around 850 mb will back to southerly and increase to over 50
   kt by 00Z. This will create supercell wind profiles, with SRH
   maximized across the Red River Valley and into MN near the warm
   front.

   The greatest concentration of severe storms is expected to be from
   northeast SD into northwest MN, where widespread wind damage will be
   possible. Storms should form in the deeply mixed air over central SD
   by late afternoon, with supercells, and perhaps eventual bows,
   rapidly expanding northeastward into MN during the evening. Given
   the speed at which storms are expected to form, upscale growth and
   thus mixed-mode is possible. Wind damage, and tornadoes, will both
   be possible. Very strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates
   suggest significant severe is likely, primarily wind and hail. A
   strong tornado cannot be ruled out given proper storm mode.

   Storms may eventually become semi-elevated as they near the warm
   front, however, any highly-organized MCS will still be capable of
   damaging wind into the night.

   Other more isolated storms are possible into NE during the heat of
   the day within a narrow zone where the air mass will become
   uncapped. Localized very large hail will be possible.

   ...Central Gulf Coast...
   Tropical Storm Cristobal is forecast to make landfall Sunday evening
   over Louisiana. Rich tropical moisture with upper 70s F dewpoints
   will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE over parts of the area, with
   increasing shear. Forecast soundings indicate effective SRH over 300
   m2/s2 which will support rotation within the stronger rain band
   storms, and possibly brief tornadoes. The parameter space appears
   most favorable over southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

   ..Jewell.. 06/06/2020

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