Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Billings, MT...Duluth, MN...Rapid City, SD...St. Cloud, MN...Superior, WI...
SPC AC 060600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MUCH OF
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
Severe storms are expected late Sunday afternoon through evening
over parts of the northern Plains, with damaging winds, very large
hail and a tornado threat. A few strong storms may affect the
central Gulf Coast states related to tropical cyclone Cristobal.
A large upper trough will remain over the West, with a leading wave
ejecting north out of ND early in the day. Behind this wave, strong
southwesterly winds aloft will persist ahead of larger-scale upper
speed max which will nose into the northern Plains late. Height
falls will occur throughout the day over the region as low pressure
forms over the central Dakotas, with deepening surface trough
extending south into the western NE.
Strong south/southeasterly surface winds will transport moisture
northward across the MO Valley and into MN with a warm front lifting
into southern MB and northern MN by 00Z. Strong heating will occur
from SD southward into NE, with capping eroded by late afternoon.
Winds around 850 mb will back to southerly and increase to over 50
kt by 00Z. This will create supercell wind profiles, with SRH
maximized across the Red River Valley and into MN near the warm
The greatest concentration of severe storms is expected to be from
northeast SD into northwest MN, where widespread wind damage will be
possible. Storms should form in the deeply mixed air over central SD
by late afternoon, with supercells, and perhaps eventual bows,
rapidly expanding northeastward into MN during the evening. Given
the speed at which storms are expected to form, upscale growth and
thus mixed-mode is possible. Wind damage, and tornadoes, will both
be possible. Very strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates
suggest significant severe is likely, primarily wind and hail. A
strong tornado cannot be ruled out given proper storm mode.
Storms may eventually become semi-elevated as they near the warm
front, however, any highly-organized MCS will still be capable of
damaging wind into the night.
Other more isolated storms are possible into NE during the heat of
the day within a narrow zone where the air mass will become
uncapped. Localized very large hail will be possible.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Tropical Storm Cristobal is forecast to make landfall Sunday evening
over Louisiana. Rich tropical moisture with upper 70s F dewpoints
will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE over parts of the area, with
increasing shear. Forecast soundings indicate effective SRH over 300
m2/s2 which will support rotation within the stronger rain band
storms, and possibly brief tornadoes. The parameter space appears
most favorable over southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z