Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
20,787
844,599
Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...Manhattan, KS...Junction City, KS...Beatrice, NE...
5 %
157,003
15,971,591
Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...Overland Park, KS...
SPC AC 080554
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Tuesday over parts of
the Missouri, mid Mississppi and Ohio Valleys during the day and
evening, with a few tornadoes possible in addition to localized wind
damage. Hail is possible as well over parts of Nebraska and Kansas,
with isolated strong storms into southern and eastern Texas
overnight.
...Synopsis...
The remnants of Cristobal, surface and aloft, will continue
north/northeast across MO and IL during the day, enhancing lift and
shear profiles, and bringing substantial low-level moisture north.
Meanwhile, a potent shortwave trough will be over the central Plains
by 00Z, and will continue east toward the MS Valley with rapid
height falls.
At the surface, the low associated with Cristobal will move from MO
into eastern IA through 00Z, with a warm front roughly from Lower MI
into southern WI. Winds aloft will rapidly veer over the MS Valley
with the passage of the first wave, then back again after 00Z as the
main trough approaches.
Various model solutions exist regarding the best area of storm
potential and destabilization. However, the general idea is for a
few supercells during the day with tornado threat from the mid MS
into the lower OH Valley areas, with a daytime threat across NE and
KS near the upper trough.
...IL...IN...western KY...parts of adjacent states...
Storm potential is expected to shift from northern MS and TN into
KY, IL and IN throughout the day, with a moist environment and
low-level shear supporting rotation. Models suggest the best SRH
(over 300 m2/s2) will be over western KY, eastern IL, and much of IN
by late afternoon, and will continue north into Lower MI after 00Z
where instability will be less. Ample moisture will support storms
scattered over the entire area, beginning in the morning over
northern MS and western TN, then rapidly shifting north.
Overnight, a very moist air mass will remain, and may support
additional strong to severe storms as the cold front arrives into
Wednesday morning.
...NE/KS/MO...
Models suggest a surface low will develop over northeast KS,
possibly southeast NE during the day as the strong upper vort max
approaches. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints may remain in a narrow
corridor wrapping northwestward around the low, supporting a pocket
of moderate instability. Strongly backed low-level winds combined
with increasing shear aloft will favor a few supercells before the
cold front stabilizes the area. A tornado is possible as well.
...Southern into eastern TX into LA overnight...
Confidence is low regarding thunderstorm potential along overnight
with a variety of model depictions. However, a very moist air mas
will remain ahead of the cold front, which will be weakly
convergent. Areas of thunderstorms may occur along the boundary,
with a marginal wind gust threat as shear will be weak.
..Jewell.. 06/08/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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