SPC AC 081746

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDWEST AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
   NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms are expected Tuesday over parts of
   the Missouri, mid Mississppi and Ohio Valleys and into the Upper
   Great Lakes region, with a few tornadoes possible in addition to
   localized wind damage.  Hail is possible as well over parts of
   Nebraska and Kansas.

   ...Synopsis...
   Remnants of Cristobal are forecast to shift northeastward across the
   mid Mississippi Valley vicinity toward the Upper Great Lakes through
   the day Tuesday, ahead of an upper trough moving out of the Rockies
   into the central U.S. through the period.

   While Cristobal -- initially progged to be centered over the Ozarks
   at the start of the period -- shifts northward with time, a cold
   front is forecast to surge eastward/southeastward across the Plains.
    By the end of the period, with remnants of Cristobal now deepening
   as a synoptic low over the Upper Great Lakes, a trailing cold front
   will likely have surged to a position from the low
   south-southwestward across the mid Mississippi Valley to the Texas
   Gulf Coast.

   ...Mid MS/mid and lower OH/TN Valleys to the Upper Great Lakes...
   A large area of precipitation associated with Cristobal is expected
   to reside across the Ozarks and mid MS/TN/lower OH  valleys early in
   the period, and will spread northward across the Midwest into the
   Upper Great Lakes region through the end of the period.  A very
   moist low-level airmass, and backed low-level flow in the northeast
   quadrant of the low, will result in a large/broad area of at least
   low-end wind and tornado potential through the period.

   At this time, it appears that a diurnal uptick in risk should occur
   through the morning and into the afternoon as storms spread across
   the mid MS and TN valleys into the IL/IN area.  Weak lapse rates,
   but very modest heating should combine with the strong veering with
   height within the background wind field to support a relative
   increase in overall severe-weather probability through the afternoon
   and into the evening hours.  At least some risk will likely linger
   through the end of the period, as convection spreads across the
   Upper Great Lakes region.

   ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas vicinity...
   Afternoon heating within the warm sector of a surface low over the
   eastern Kansas vicinity -- associated with an upper low moving
   eastward out of the Rockies -- is expected to yield moderate
   afternoon destabilization across parts of eastern Kansas/eastern
   Nebraska.  Scattered storms are expected to develop as a result,
   with supercell potential evident given favorably veering/increasing
   flow with height.  Large hail and damaging winds will be possible,
   along with potential for a tornado or two.  Storms should diminish
   during the evening, as diurnal stabilization commences.

   ..Goss.. 06/08/2020

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