SPC AC 090544

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO...LOWER
   MICHIGAN...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
   YORK...WEST VIRGINIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms are possible from Ohio and Lower Michigan
   into parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York Wednesday
   afternoon and evening. South of this area, a few strong to severe
   wind gusts will be possible.

   ...Lower MI, OH and northern KY into WV, NY and PA...
   A strong shortwave trough will move northeast out of the mid MS
   Valley toward the Great Lakes during the day, and into Ontario by
   Thursday morning. Low pressure is expected to redevelop across the
   upper Great Lakes, with a cold front extending from eastern Lower MI
   into OH, eastern KY and TN, and across AL at 00Z.

   Ahead of the front, a very moist air mass will exist, contributing
   to MUCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg mainly north of the OH River. Height
   falls will also be strongest across the same areas aiding
   large-scale ascent. The result should be scattered to numerous
   storms along the front by 21Z over lower MI, extending as far south
   as KY. A 50 kt low-level jet will enhance low-level shear, with SRH
   levels favorable for supercells and a couple tornadoes. 

   During the day over northern NY, isolated severe storms cannot be
   ruled out along the warm front. The increased SRH in this area will
   conditionally favor supercells, and even a brief tornado but storm
   coverage is uncertain. 

   Otherwise, storms along the main cold front should persist eastward
   across PA and NY during the evening, beneath strong winds aloft.
   Damaging winds will be possible.

   Models differ with the speed of the upper trough and cold front, but
   have generally gone with the 12Z ECMWF solution.

   ...Appalachians vicinity southwestward toward the Gulf Coast...
   Daytime storms will also develop southward across the Appalachians
   and into AL and possibly far southern MS/LA along the front. Shear
   will be weaker in these areas, but localized wind damage may occur
   with the strongest cells as MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg develops with
   heating.

   ..Jewell.. 06/09/2020

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