SPC AC 200551

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday afternoon and
   evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. Wind damage
   will be the greatest threat but a tornado and large hail threat will
   also be likely. Severe storms with wind damage and isolated large
   hail will also be possible across the Mid Missouri Valley.

   ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
   A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place at mid-levels across
   much of the central U.S. on Sunday. A subtle shortwave trough is
   forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains
   Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will move
   southeastward into the central Plains. Model forecasts suggest that
   the front should be located in western Kansas by afternoon, acting
   as a focus for convective development. Thunderstorms are expected to
   initiate by late afternoon along the front and then spread
   east-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas and northern
   Oklahoma. Linear MCS formation may occur by early evening as cells
   congeal and low-level flow increases across the region.

   A very moist airmass will be in place across Oklahoma and the
   southern half of Kansas by afternoon with surface dewpoints likely
   in the mid to upper 60s F. In response, moderate to strong
   instability is expected to develop by afternoon. NAM forecast
   soundings increase MLCAPE into the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range across a
   large part of the moist sector. In addition, the wind profile will
   be quite favorable for severe storms with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to
   45 kt range. Forecast soundings show veering winds with height in
   the low to mid-levels with speed shear mostly above 500 mb. This
   combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for
   supercells with wind damage and large hail. The potential for
   supercells should be greatest early in the event from western
   Oklahoma into central Kansas. The wind damage threat is expected to
   increase as cells congeal into a linear MCS. The stronger part of
   the line is forecast to move east-southeastward across central and
   southern Kansas extending southward into northern Oklahoma during
   the late afternoon and early evening. An enhanced risk has been
   added for this area. As low-level flow increases during the early
   evening, conditions will also be favorable for a few tornadoes.

   A severe threat will also be possible further to the north-northeast
   into parts of the mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms
   appear likely to initiate across parts of the warm sector during the
   mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most
   favorable along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Forecast soundings
   show moderate instability with 0-6 km shear generally in the 30 to
   40 kt range. This environment will be favorable for severe storms
   capable of producing wind damage and isolated large hail.

   Further south into west Texas, a capping inversion will keep
   convective development more isolated. Thunderstorms that can develop
   in moderate instability in spite of the cap, should have a potential
   for hail and isolated damaging wind gusts.

   ..Broyles.. 06/20/2020

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