Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
21,530
471,274
Enid, OK...Hutchinson, KS...Dodge City, KS...Great Bend, KS...Woodward, OK...
2 %
173,577
13,552,124
Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
166,470
8,937,740
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...
5 %
305,042
12,457,359
Oklahoma City, OK...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...
SPC AC 201733
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of mostly damaging wind and large hail are
likely Sunday afternoon and evening across a portion of the central
and southern Plains. Severe storms with wind damage and isolated
large hail will also be possible across the middle to upper
Mississippi Valley region.
...Kansas through Oklahoma...
Cutoff upper low will persist over south central Canada Sunday. As
this feature drifts slowly eastward, a northwest flow pattern will
become established over the central Plains. Embedded within this
regime, a low-amplitude shortwave trough (now moving into the
Pacific NW) will turn southeast, reaching the central High Plains
during the afternoon. At the surface a dryline/lee trough will
sharpen across western KS. The downstream warm sector is expected to
become moderately to strongly unstable with 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE
supported by boundary layer dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F,
steep lapse rates and diabatic warming of the surface. Storms will
likely develop along the dryline/lee trough as the atmosphere
destabilizes and as deeper forcing for ascent accompanying the
shortwave trough overtakes the dryline. Wind profiles will undergo
modest strengthening with the approach of the impulse with 30-40 kt
effective bulk shear supportive of both multicell and some supercell
structures. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main threats,
but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. General trend will be for
storms to evolve into a forward propagating MCS toward evening
supported by a strengthening low-level jet with damaging wind
becoming the main threat.
...Eastern Nebraska through the upper Mississippi Valley...
A vorticity maximum is forecast to rotate through the base of an
upper low circulation centered over southern Canada and into the
upper MS Valley region Sunday afternoon accompanied by a weak cold
front. The pre-frontal warm sector is expected to become moderately
unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and some increase in vertical
shear (30-40 kt) is expected by late afternoon. Storms will likely
develop along and ahead of the front from eastern NE into southern
MN, possibly spreading into western WI with both multicell and some
supercell structures. A few instances of damaging wind and large
hail will be possible into early evening.
..Dial.. 06/20/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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