SPC AC 210536

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and
   evening from the eastern Texas Panhandle east-northeastward across
   the southern Plains into the western Ozarks. Wind damage and
   isolated large hail will be the primary threats.

   ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward into the mid Mississippi
   Valley on Monday as northwest mid-level flow remains across the
   southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front is forecast to
   be located from west Texas east-northeastward across northern
   Oklahoma and into far southeast Kansas by afternoon. A moist airmass
   will be in place south of the front with surface dewpoints ranging
   from the mid 60s F in the eastern Texas Panhandle to the lower 70s F
   across central and eastern Oklahoma. In response to surface heating,
   strong instability should develop during the afternoon with MLCAPE
   potentially exceeding 3000 J/kg across parts of southern Plains
   south of the front. Multiple thunderstorm clusters appear likely to
   develop along the front and move south-southeastward across the
   southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. The
   development of a linear MCS will be possible as cells merge and
   mature.

   In addition to the strong instability, NAM and GFS forecast
   soundings by 00Z/Tuesday have moderate deep-layer shear across the
   instability corridor with 0-6 km shear generally in the 40 to 50 kt
   range. This environment will likely support severe thunderstorm
   development during the late afternoon and early evening. Substantial
   turning of the winds with height in the low to mid-levels will
   probably result in linear organization. Model forecasts suggest that
   a broken or nearly continuous line will form in the southern Plains
   extending from west to east from the eastern Texas Panhandle
   eastward to western Arkansas. Wind damage would be possible along
   the leading edge of the stronger parts of the line. Hail could also
   occur with the more intense cores.

   Further to the east across the mid Mississippi Valley, a moist
   airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
   F. This may enable a pocket of moderate instability to develop
   Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings in the mid Mississippi Valley
   on Monday show 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt range suggesting an
   isolated severe threat will be possible. However, uncertainty exists
   concerning the distribution of instability and convective coverage,
   mainly due to model differences. At this point, a marginal risk
   appears to be the most likely threat level for the mid Mississippi
   Valley Monday afternoon and evening.

   ..Broyles.. 06/21/2020

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