Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
75,380
1,530,913
Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Mankato, MN...Moorhead, MN...Aberdeen, SD...
5 %
354,793
25,013,800
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
76,355
1,595,986
Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Mankato, MN...Moorhead, MN...Aberdeen, SD...
SPC AC 240602
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/locally severe storms will be possible across parts
of the north-central U.S. Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
As an upper low over western Quebec drifts slowly northeastward with
time, surrounding cyclonic flow field over the eastern U.S. will be
gradually shunted eastward, as a mid-level trough shifts out of the
northern Intermountain region and into the north-central U.S.
through the period.
At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be a weak cool
front progged to progress eastward across the north-central U.S. in
conjunction with the parent upper trough. This front will focus
afternoon and evening convection -- along with some potential for
locally severe storms.
...North-central CONUS...
Afternoon heating/destabilization is expected from parts of Wyoming
eastward into the northern Plains during the afternoon, with CAPE
likely maximized in the eastern South Dakota/Nebraska area, as
low-level moisture returns northward ahead of the front, and
particularly in the vicinity of a potential/weak frontal wave near a
cold front/warm front intersection that may evolve in the mid
Missouri Valley vicinity.
As ascent increases with the advancing upper trough -- focused near
surface frontal zones -- the destabilizing airmass will support
scattered storm development. With a belt of 30 to 40 kt mid-level
westerlies expected over the Dakotas, atop enhanced southerly
low-level flow, shear sufficient for organized/severe storms will
support potential for locally damaging winds and hail. Some tornado
risk could evolve, if the aforementioned frontal wave develops, with
backed low-level winds in the vicinity, and eastward along the weak
warm front.
Storms will likely continue shifting eastward through the evening
toward the upper Mississippi Valley, as a low-level jet develops and
veers with time, though severe risk should begin to wane diurnally
through late evening/overnight.
...The Carolinas/Virginia and vicinity...
Numerous small-scale disturbances embedded within broad mid-level
cyclonic flow over the east are progged to rotate across the central
Appalachians/mid-Atlantic region and into the Carolinas Thursday.
Convection -- some of it likely ongoing at the start of the period
-- is expected across the discussion area, casting uncertainty as to
areas where afternoon destabilization may occur. With 35 to 45 kt
westerly mid-level flow atop the area, any new afternoon convective
development would have the potential for fast eastward storm motion
and some potential for locally gusty/potentially damaging winds.
With the degree of any risk likely dependent upon the degree of
destabilization which may occur, will introduce only 5% wind
probability and MRGL (level 1) categorical risk at this time.
..Goss.. 06/24/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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