Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
83,401
869,190
Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Aberdeen, SD...
SPC AC 041710
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern
Plains Sunday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
across the central and southern High Plains as well as southern New
England.
...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging will dominate the weather across much of the
central and southern US on Sunday, with the stronger westerlies
extending from the Great Basin into the northern Plains, and over
New England. Both of these areas will see some risk of strong to
severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening.
...Northern Plains...
Moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds will be present
tomorrow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak front
will extend from eastern WY into central SD and northwest MN. This
boundary is expected to be the focus of scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development, with ample low-level moisture and
MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg. Forecast soundings in this area
suggest sufficient deep-layer shear for initial supercell structures
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Models are varied in
their solutions regarding the evening evolution of storms, but it is
likely that one or more MCSs will develop with a persistent wind
threat well after dark.
...New England...
An upper trough will be affecting New England on Sunday, with
northwesterly flow aloft and rather cool mid-level temperatures.
Parameters appear conditionally favorable for scattered strong
storms capable of gusty winds and hail. The primary uncertainty
involves convective coverage due to relatively dry mid-level air and
weak low-level convergence. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk
over parts of ME/NH/MA where model solutions are more aggressive
with convective coverage/intensity. However, risk might need to
extend westward into VT and eastern NY in later updates if potential
of initiation increases.
...Southern Plains...
A series of weak upper shortwave troughs are embedded in the
relatively weak flow aloft over CA/AZ/NM. These features are
expected to slowly rotate eastward and into parts of eastern NM and
west TX on Sunday. This will likely result in greater coverage of
afternoon thunderstorms. Mid-level winds will be very marginal for
organized convection. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer may be
sufficient for a few storms producing gusty/damaging wind gusts.
..Hart.. 07/04/2020
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