SPC AC 050525

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   MT...NORTHEAST WY...AND FAR WESTERN SD...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern
   High Plains Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging is forecast to extend from the Southwest/northern
   Mexico northeastward into the middle/lower MO Valley early Monday
   morning. This upper ridging is largely expected to remain in place,
   with perhaps some modest northeastward expansion. A belt of enhanced
   westerly/southwesterly flow aloft is expected to the northwest of
   the upper ridging, extending from central CA/Pacific Northwest
   northwestward through the northern Plains and into western Ontario.
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress through
   this enhanced flow, reaching the northern High Plains by late Monday
   afternoon. A stronger shortwave trough is expected to move through
   the Pacific Northwest late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. 

   Elsewhere, a weak upper low is expected to drift slowly eastward
   from the lower MS Valley into the Southeast while a convectively
   augmented vorticity maximum moves southward from the TX Panhandle
   towards the TX Hill Country.

   ...Northern High Plains eastward into the Upper Midwest...
   Early Monday, a cold front is forecast to extend from western
   Ontario southwestward through central MN to the central SD/NE
   vicinity and then back westward/northwestward into eastern WY.
   Eastern portion of this front is expected to continue progressing
   eastward/southeastward while the western portion (roughly from the
   central SD/NE border vicinity into WY) remains largely stationary.
   Moderate buoyancy will be in place ahead of the front over the Upper
   Midwest, contributing to the potential for a few strong updrafts
   capable of damaging wind gusts and/or isolated hail.

   A greater severe threat is anticipated farther west (i.e. southeast
   MT, northeast WY, and far western SD), where southeasterly upslope
   flow beneath enhanced westerly flow aloft will contribute to
   moderate to strong vertical shear. This upslope flow will also
   contribute to increased low-level moisture as well as low-level
   convergence. This convergence will augment the strengthening
   large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching
   shortwave trough. All of these factors result in an environment
   supporting isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. Long,
   straight hodographs suggest splitting supercells with hail and
   strong wind gusts as the primary hazards.

   ..Mosier.. 07/05/2020

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