SPC AC 100600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   KS...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHWEST AR...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and
   southern Plains and Ozark Plateau on Saturday. A few strong storms
   are also possible over the coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge is forecast to remain in place from the Southwest
   into the Southern Plains on Saturday, while an upper trough remains
   over much of the East. T.C. Fay is expected to be inland over New
   England at the start of the period Saturday morning and its remnant
   circulation is forecast to move quickly north-northeastward into
   Canada during the day (refer to NHC forecasts for more information).
   Further west, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move from
   the Ohio Valley into New England by Sunday morning, with additional
   lower-amplitude shortwave troughs likely to be embedded within broad
   northwesterly mid/upper-level flow from the northern Plains into the
   MS Valley.  

   ...Southern/central Plains into the Ozark Plateau...
   Elevated convection, possibly in the form of a
   southeastward-propagating MCS, will likely be ongoing at the start
   of the period somewhere from the mid-MO Valley into the Ozark
   Plateau. Any such convection would pose a threat for damaging wind
   and perhaps some hail, given the presence of ample MUCAPE and
   sufficient effective shear. The severe threat into the
   afternoon/evening will be strongly influenced by how any morning
   convection and related outflow boundaries evolve during the day.
   These details remain highly uncertain, but a conditionally favorable
   environment characterized by strong instability and moderate
   effective shear will likely evolve by late afternoon somewhere in
   the vicinity of any remnant boundary. 

   The greatest relative risk currently appears to be across eastern
   KS/northeast OK/southwest MO/northwest AR, where multiple scenarios,
   including an early-day MCS and/or redevelopment along a remnant
   boundary during the afternoon/evening, will be possible.
   Accordingly, a Slight Risk has been introduced for this region. 

   ...Northern Mid Atlantic into New England...
   While T.C. Fay is forecast to move quickly into Canada sometime
   Saturday morning, rich low-level moisture and modestly enhanced
   low/mid-level flow will likely remain in its wake from the northern
   Mid Atlantic into portions of New England, in advance of the
   shortwave trough moving eastward from the OH Valley. Renewed
   convective development is expected by late morning/early afternoon,
   with the strongest storms capable of localized wind damage. 

   ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Coastal Carolinas...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening
   from southern portions of the Mid Atlantic into coastal regions of
   NC/SC. Midlevel flow of 20-30 kt may support weakly organized
   updrafts, and locally damaging wind may be possible with the
   strongest storms, though confidence remains too low at this time to
   introduce probabilities.

   ..Dean.. 07/10/2020

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