Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...
MARGINAL
397,125
60,153,456
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
68,066
4,267,219
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...
5 %
381,900
58,699,063
New York, NY...Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
67,610
4,251,974
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...
5 %
333,427
26,231,291
Memphis, TN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...
SPC AC 101731
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail are possible on
Saturday from southeast Kansas and a portion of Oklahoma into the
lower Mississippi Valley. A few strong storms are also possible
during the afternoon from the coastal Mid-Atlantic into New England
with isolated damaging wind the main threat.
...Southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma through the lower
Mississippi Valley region...
An MCS, possibly posing an ongoing threat for damaging wind, will
likely be in progress from southeast KS into southwest MO by 12Z
Saturday. This activity will reside along the eastern fringe of the
elevated mixed layer. Downstream heating of the boundary layer will
occur across the lower MS Valley and some potential will exist for
this activity to continue southeast along instability gradient. The
CAMS differ considerably with the HRRR being the most aggressive
solution indicating a robust MCS will continue into the lower MS
Valley into the afternoon. It is also possible initial activity may
weaken, but other storms may redevelop farther southeast across AR
and west TN in association with the progressive MCV and accompanying
outflow boundary. Given the inherent uncertainty with these type of
NW flow/MCS setups, have opted to expand SLGT risk only a modest
amount this update.
...Central through western Oklahoma...
A few strong to severe storms will also be possible during the
afternoon along a cold front across central/western OK within an
environment characterized by strong instability and 30-35 kt
effective bulk shear. Have opted to maintain MRGL at this point due
to uncertainty regarding storm coverage. However, an upgrade to SLGT
might be warranted in day 1 updates.
...Northern Mid Atlantic into New England...
While T.C. Fay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move
quickly into Canada Saturday morning, rich low-level moisture and
modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow will likely remain in its wake
from the northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England, in
advance of the shortwave trough moving eastward from the OH Valley.
Renewed thunderstorm development is expected by late morning/early
afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of localized wind
damage.
..Dial.. 07/10/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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