Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
47,525
2,933,554
Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Rochester, MN...Waterloo, IA...Eau Claire, WI...
2 %
63,238
4,000,601
Omaha, NE...Madison, WI...Green Bay, WI...Davenport, IA...St. Joseph, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...
SPC AC 131752
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected Tuesday from the south-central
High Plains to the Upper Midwest.
...Middle Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning
within a corridor from southern Minnesota into western/northern
Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan. This provides some uncertainty
regarding the exact degree of later-day destabilization,
particularly with east-northeastward extent across Wisconsin into
Upper Michigan. Even so, some degree of outflow modification/airmass
recovery can be expected ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing
cold front and moderate destabilization by late afternoon is
plausible from southeast Minnesota into western/central Wisconsin.
More robust destabilization is expected farther southwest across
Iowa/northern Missouri, where upwards of 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE can be
expected.
Supported by a seasonably strong belt of westerly winds aloft, a
mixed mode of supercells/sustained multicells can be expected across
the region particularly Tuesday afternoon/evening, with large hail
and damaging winds expected. A couple of tornadoes could also occur,
particularly if minimal early day overturning occurs with moderate
destabilization across northeast Iowa/southeast Minnesota into
Wisconsin, where low-level shear/SRH would conditionally be most
conducive for a tornado risk.
...South-central High Plains...
Have upgraded parts of the region to a categorical Slight Risk. A
front will settle southward across the region on Tuesday, with
increasing moist low-level upslope flow expected by late in the
day/evening across southeast Colorado and nearby parts of northeast
New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. As the boundary layer
destabilizes, thunderstorms including some initial supercells are
likely to develop and intensify Tuesday afternoon near the
east-central/southeast Colorado Front Range and southeast Colorado
Plains. Isolated large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are
initially expected, but the damaging-wind potential is expected to
increase with probable MCS development as storms spread into
southwest Kansas and towards the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle during the
evening.
Farther south, other higher-based thunderstorms capable of
strong/severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible late Tuesday
afternoon/early evening within the hot/deeply mixed environment
across other parts of the Texas Panhandle and Texas South Plains.
..Guyer.. 07/13/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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